HOU 119, MIL 113: Sheppard's 63 ESPN FP Eruption
Tyler Okonkwo
Student & Retail Associate ยท Houston Rockets fan
Rockets Survive Chaos, But the Real Story Is Who Actually Showed Up
Final: Bucks 113, Rockets 119
Okay, so we're not talking about a typical Thursday night blowout here. This was the kind of game that makes you check the box score twice because nothing makes sense on the surface. The Rockets won at home, cool. But the reason they won? That's where it gets interesting for your fantasy lineup.
The Bucks came in without half their roster and the Rockets still had to sweat it out. Let me explain what happened and more importantly, what it means for your waiver claims this week.
| Player | ESPN FP | Yahoo FP | Tonight | Season Avg | +/- Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dieng | 57.0 | 57.4 | 36/7/10 | 7.0/2.8/2.0 | +29.0 |
| Alperen Sengun | 59.0 | 49.6 | 25/8/4 | 20.6/8.9/6.2 | +4.4 |
| Reed Sheppard | 63.0 | 46.8 | 27/4/6 | 13.7/2.9/3.4 | +13.3 |
| Amen Thompson | 47.0 | 43.8 | 18/9/6 | 17.9/7.8/5.3 | +0.1 |
| Kevin Durant | 41.0 | 39.5 | 19/5/9 | 25.8/5.4/4.7 | -6.8 |
| Cormac Ryan | 43.0 | 34.4 | 25/2/4 | 9.0/0.6/1.0 | +16.0 |
| Jericho Sims | 23.0 | 32.0 | 6/20/2 | 4.4/5.3/1.2 | +1.6 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 28.0 | 30.4 | 12/7/4 | 15.5/6.9/1.9 | -3.5 |
| Pete Nance | 36.0 | 27.6 | 23/3/0 | 5.3/2.5/0.9 | +17.7 |
| AJ Green | 23.0 | 25.6 | 15/8/2 | 9.7/2.7/1.9 | +5.3 |
The Outliners Who Went Crazy
Ousmane Dieng dropped 36 points on 15-31 shooting with 10 assists. Yahoo had him at 57.4 fantasy points. Let's be real, this is what we call a "don't get cute" performance. Dieng is averaging 7 points a night normally. He went absolutely off for 29 points above his season average. This isn't sustainable. I don't care if he went unconscious tonight, he's a role guy who had the game of his life against a depleted Bucks squad. Don't overreact and reach for him next week.
Pete Nance exploded for 23 points on 9-13 shooting with five threes. That's 17.7 points above his season average on a 5.3 PPG baseline. Again, outlier territory. He got fed in an environment where the Bucks' defense was basically in shambles.
Cormac Ryan put up 25 points with four threes and is 16 points above his season average. Same story, different guy. The Bucks showed up to this game with basically a G-League roster and these role guys capitalized.
The Rockets Guys Who Actually Matter
Reed Sheppard is the one I'm watching here. He hit 9 threes for 27 points and is 13.3 points above his season average, but look at his season line, 13.7 PPG on 3.4 assists. He's supposed to be getting around 27-30 points per game as a primary option. This wasn't an anomaly, this was him playing his actual role. I'm keeping Sheppard on radar because he's clearly built for volume.
Alperen Sengun did his thing. 25 points, 8 boards, 4 assists on efficient 9-13 shooting. He was just 4.4 points above his season average, which means he played within his normal range. This is the stability you want from your big man. ESPN gave him 59 but Yahoo had 49.6 because he didn't rack up the steals or blocks, but that doesn't matter. He's consistent.
Amen Thompson basically matched his season average. 18 points, 9 boards, 6 assists, and he shot 8-8 from the line. That's clean basketball. Nothing flashy, nothing scary. Just a solid night from your wing.
The Disappointment
Kevin Durant putting up 19 points on 7-16 shooting is genuinely disappointing. He's averaging 25.8 and tonight he was 6.8 points below that on inefficient volume. He did add 9 assists so the playmaking was there, but for a guy of his caliber against this Bucks defense, he should've feasted. The Rockets won anyway so it's not a disaster, but if you're rostering Durant, you're expecting more.
Jabari Smith Jr. also underperformed at 12 points on 5-15 shooting. He's a 15.5 PPG guy and he came in 3.5 points short. With limited minutes at 33, he didn't get enough volume to get comfortable. Could be a rhythm thing.
The Real Fantasy Move Here
The Bucks situation is what matters. Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play. Neither did Bobby Portis, Myles Turner, or Kevin Porter Jr. That's basically your entire rotation gone. So Ousmane Dieng, Cormac Ryan, Pete Nance, and AJ Green all got artificial opportunity. If those guys clear waivers this week because people are hyped on one good game, absolutely claim them in 12-team leagues as deep bench guys, but don't trade for them or drop actual contributors.
Jericho Sims was the one bright spot off the Bucks bench. 20 boards in 35 minutes is genuinely useful, even though he only had 6 points. In a league where the big men are going down, rebounding is real value. If he's available, he's worth a flier.
The story of this game isn't the Rockets' win. It's that the Bucks showed up completely demolished and still stayed competitive. That's not great for fantasy purposes because it means we're not learning anything about sustainable value. Just a lot of replacement-level guys having career nights.
For next week, the waiver wire is gonna look crazy with Dieng and Ryan getting added everywhere. Don't panic buy. Let the real owners overreact and snap them up at deflated value later. That's when you exploit the market.