POR 114, LAC 104: Avdija Posts Elite 51.2 Yahoo FP
Kwame Asante
Junior Accountant ยท Oklahoma City Thunder fan
Trail Blazers Steal One in LA: Avdija & Holiday Show Out While Kawhi Goes Quiet
Portland just walked into Crypto.com Arena and left with a dub, and fantasy nerds everywhere are scrambling to figure out what this means for their lineups. The Blazers won 114-104, but the fantasy story here is messier than the final score suggests. Let's sort it.
| Player | ESPN FP | Yahoo FP | Tonight | Season Avg | +/- Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 52.0 | 51.2 | 28/11/8 | 23.8/6.9/6.7 | +4.2 |
| Jrue Holiday | 48.0 | 43.2 | 30/6/2 | 15.8/4.4/6.1 | +14.2 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 37.0 | 40.1 | 23/8/3 | 28.2/6.3/3.6 | -5.2 |
| Brook Lopez | 39.0 | 37.4 | 18/7/2 | 8.1/3.3/1.3 | +9.9 |
| Toumani Camara | 35.0 | 33.4 | 17/7/0 | 13.1/5.2/2.5 | +3.9 |
| Darius Garland | 32.0 | 32.4 | 20/2/4 | 19.1/2.4/6.9 | +0.9 |
| John Collins | 42.0 | 31.7 | 17/6/1 | 13.5/5.2/1.0 | +3.5 |
| Jordan Miller | 32.0 | 25.9 | 16/2/3 | 9.6/3.1/2.2 | +6.4 |
| Kris Murray | 23.0 | 24.4 | 7/7/6 | 5.9/3.6/1.3 | +1.1 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 23.0 | 19.9 | 5/2/1 | 5.5/2.0/0.8 | -0.5 |
The Portland Explosion
Deni Avdija absolutely cooked tonight. 28 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists on 8-15 shooting with 11-12 from the line. That's 51.2 Yahoo FP, and more importantly, he went +4.2 points above his season average. This is the kind of performance that makes you sit up and pay attention because Avdija's been solid all year but never quite explosive like this. The shooting was pristine (73% from the floor), and he didn't waste possessions. If you've got him, you're happy. If you don't, he's probably rostered already in your league but worth noting for next week when matchups matter.
Jrue Holiday dropped 30 points on 10-21 shooting with 7 threes. Here's where it gets spicy though, because that's +14.2 vs his season average. A reigning All-NBA second-teamer going nuclear is always dangerous for fantasy purposes. He shot 3s at a 33% clip for the season, and suddenly he's 7-for-7 from deep. That's variance. Don't panic if you're facing him, but also don't start loading up on him thinking he's discovered a new gear. This was a hot shooting night masking what was otherwise a quiet game by his standards (only 6 rebounds and 2 assists). That's a red flag buried in a great fantasy line.
The Clippers Got Bullied
Kawhi Leonard went 23/8/3 on 7-15 shooting. That's 40.1 Yahoo FP, which sounds decent until you realize he's -5.2 points below his season average of 28.2 PPG. For an All-NBA first-teamer, that's underperforming. He was 0-for-however-many from three, which is unusual for his game. Still shot 90% from the line, so there was some competence there, but the volume wasn't there. This is a one-off. Kawhi's too good to panic on, but if you're looking for evidence that the Clippers' spacing struggles are real, this game provides it.
Brook Lopez was weirdly Portland's second-best fantasy asset. 18/7/2 with 3 blocks on 7-16 shooting isn't a typical stat line for a backup big, but he was +9.9 above his season average. Thing is, Lopez averaged 8.1 PPG coming in, so tonight he basically doubled his scoring. That's matchup variance against a specific defense. Probably doesn't repeat.
The Role Players Who Mattered
John Collins went 17/6/1 on 7-8 shooting with 3 threes. That's 31.7 Yahoo FP, and 7-8 is the kind of shooting efficiency that wins games. He was +3.5 above his season average. Collins has been a streaky fantasy asset all year, and tonight he found the hot hand. If he keeps getting looks like this, he becomes a must-add in 12-team leagues. Right now he's at 90% ownership, so most of you already have him. Just monitor whether his usage stays elevated.
Toumani Camara put up 17/7/0 with 2 steals on 7-16 shooting. That's solid complementary play (33.4 Yahoo FP), and he's finally getting consistent run. At 97.6% owned, he's basically universal, but he moved up 0.1% in ownership after this game, which means some people are finally catching on. His rebounds were 5.2 season average and he got 7 tonight, so there's some positive regression happening.
Kris Murray was a weird bright spot with 7/7/6 on limited shooting (3-9). That's 24.4 Yahoo FP on a quiet line, and +3.4 rebounds vs his average. He doesn't take many shots, so don't get excited about him as a scoring option, but if you need assists and boards from a secondary ball handler, he's been appearing in more rotations lately. Still, he's not owned widely enough to matter for most leagues.
What To Actually Do
Deni Avdija just became more interesting. He's already 97.6% owned, so you don't need to add him. But if you've been shopping him in trades, maybe hold. This is the kind of game that makes people believe he's breaking through.
Jrue Holiday had the sexier line on paper, but the shooting was the anomaly. He's +14.2 in scoring, but that's almost entirely from volume. Don't overvalue this one game.
Kawhi Leonard didn't have a bad game, just a quiet one. Nothing to worry about unless this becomes a pattern. Check back in 3-4 games.
John Collins worth eyeing if he's somehow available. 7-8 shooting is an efficiency that doesn't last forever, but if he's cracking 30 minutes and getting real offensive looks, that's a different story than what we've seen most of the season.
This wasn't a fantasy bloodbath or a league-altering performance. It was a well-fought road win where Portland's top two guys showed up and LA's got its best player going quiet. Normal mid-season stuff. Adjust your lineups accordingly and don't overreact to one night of variance.