ATL 122, MIL 99: Jalen Johnson Outduels Jr. in Fantasy Showdown
Sarah Kowalski
Orthopedic Nurse ยท Milwaukee Bucks fan
Hawks Cruise Past Bucks 122-99, CJ McCollum Goes Absolutely Nuclear
Listen, I'm not happy about this one. The Bucks got absolutely cooked at home, and it wasn't even close. Milwaukee looked flat, disorganized, and frankly, like a team missing its best player. But fantasy-wise? The Hawks had a masterclass showing, and there's real money to be made here if you're paying attention.
Let me break down what actually happened last night.
Top Performers
| Player | ESPN FP | Yahoo FP | Tonight | Season Avg | +/- Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 52.0 | 50.0 | 23/10/12 | 23.0/10.4/8.0 | +0.0 |
| Kevin Porter Jr. | 46.0 | 42.9 | 18/7/7 | 17.2/5.3/7.3 | +0.8 |
| Ryan Rollins | 56.0 | 42.6 | 22/3/8 | 16.7/4.7/5.6 | +5.3 |
| CJ McCollum | 45.0 | 37.6 | 30/3/2 | 18.7/3.5/3.6 | +11.3 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 40.0 | 35.1 | 20/3/1 | 20.0/3.4/3.7 | +0.0 |
| Dyson Daniels | 33.0 | 30.4 | 8/7/4 | 11.5/6.6/6.1 | -3.5 |
| Bobby Portis | 19.0 | 23.7 | 14/6/1 | 13.4/6.3/1.5 | +0.6 |
| Corey Kispert | 20.0 | 19.3 | 13/4/1 | 9.7/2.5/1.7 | +3.3 |
| Jock Landale | 19.0 | 18.7 | 10/6/1 | 10.8/5.9/1.6 | -0.8 |
| Myles Turner | 18.0 | 18.7 | 8/6/3 | 12.2/5.4/1.5 | -4.2 |
CJ McCollum Was Unhinged (In the Best Way)
Okay, so CJ McCollum dropped 30 points on 10-18 shooting with 7 threes in just 26 minutes. That's a +11.3 swing from his season average. This wasn't lucky variance either. He was in rhythm, getting clean looks, and Atlanta's offense ran through him. 37.6 Yahoo points is not a fluke performance.
Here's the thing though: McCollum's been hovering around 18.7 PPG on the season. Last night was him having one of those games where everything dropped. These happen. Don't panic-sell, but also don't expect 30 points every night. He's still a solid mid-tier scorer, and on a Hawks team that's clearly gelling, he's worth holding if you've got him.
Jalen Johnson, The Quiet Star
Jalen Johnson put up 23/10/12 in 34 minutes. That's basically his season line, which actually tells you something important: he's consistent. He's also getting assists now (12 is way above his usual output). For a PF, having that kind of assist number changes everything in deeper leagues. He's not a sell-high candidate because this isn't really an outlier night for him, but he's a hold, especially on Atlanta where the minutes are secure.
Ryan Rollins Went OFF (But Stay Calm)
Ryan Rollins with 56 ESPN fantasy points? That's the highest in the game. 22 points on 8-11 shooting with 4 threes and 8 assists? Yeah, okay. But here's what concerns me: he played 30 minutes and put up massive usage. That's what happens when you're getting clean looks against a soft defense. Rollins is good, don't get me wrong, but this is probably closer to a ceiling game than a floor game. He's a 16.7 PPG guy on average. Keep him if you have him, but don't overpay to acquire him thinking every night is like this.
The Bucks Problem (And It's Bigger Than Last Night)
This is where I have to be real with you. The Milwaukee Bucks played without Giannis, and it showed immediately. Kevin Porter Jr. was basically Milwaukee's entire offense with 42.9 Yahoo points (18/7/7), and even with a solid all-around game, it wasn't enough. When your best player doesn't show up, your role guys have to go nuclear, and the supporting cast just couldn't get there.
Bobby Portis with 23.7 Yahoo FP was probably the best Milwaukee could do outside of KPJ, but he shot 5-15. That's not sustainable. The Bucks shot 39% from the field as a team. They were always playing catch-up after the first half.
Myles Turner (18.7 Yahoo FP) was fine, but fine doesn't win games when you're that short-handed. He's still worth having, but against a Hawks team with scoring balance, even his elite rim protection can't save a night like this.
The Real Story: Atlanta's Depth Is Actually Legit
Look at that Hawks box score. You've got Dyson Daniels with 30.4 Yahoo FP on All-Defensive Second Team honors. You've got Nickeil Alexander-Walker dropping 35.1 Yahoo FP. You've got role guys like Corey Kispert (19.3 FP) and Jock Landale (18.7 FP) getting their spots and producing.
Atlanta isn't a one-star team anymore. They're balanced, they're rolling, and that matters for fantasy purposes. If you're looking to buy into Hawks players, the time is now. The ownership hasn't fully caught up yet.
Waiver Wire Action
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is up +0.3% ownership league-wide after last night, which feels low for a 35-point performance. He's at 84.6% ownership, so he's already on most rosters, but if he's sitting in free agency in your league, grab him. He's a 20-PPG scorer with upside in that Hawks offense.
The Bucks situation is trickier. Nobody's getting cut after one game, but keep your eyes on Milwaukee's injury report. If Giannis is dealing with something real, the team's ceiling is way lower.
Bottom Line
Atlanta just showed it can beat anyone when they're healthy and clicking. The Bucks got exposed without their superstar. For fantasy, the Hawks are the buy right now, and the Bucks are a hold at best until we know Giannis is 100%.
And yeah, I'm still mad we lost this one at home.