MIA 112, MIL 105: Pelle Larsson Comes Alive With 46.2 Yahoo FP
Sarah Kowalski
Orthopedic Nurse · Milwaukee Bucks fan
Heat Survive Ugly Bench-Heavy Game as Pelle Larsson Goes Absolutely Nuclear
Look, I'm not thrilled about this one. Giannis and the Bucks came to play, but Miami's depth just wore them down 112-105. The story here isn't that the Heat won. The story is that a role player nobody was talking about two weeks ago just put up one of the most devastating offensive performances I've seen all season.
Pelle Larsson didn't just exceed his season average. He obliterated it. 46.2 Yahoo points on a 28/6/6 line? The dude was 9-14 from the field and 8-8 from the free throw line. That's not a hot night. That's a supernova.
Let me break down what actually happened here.
Top Performers
| Player | ESPN FP | Yahoo FP | Tonight | Season Avg | +/- Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelle Larsson | 54.0 | 46.2 | 28/6/6 | 10.4/3.4/3.3 | +17.6 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 41.0 | 45.7 | 31/6/3 | 27.4/9.8/5.4 | +3.6 |
| Ryan Rollins | 44.0 | 37.0 | 16/5/10 | 16.6/4.7/5.5 | -0.6 |
| Kasparas Jakučionis | 42.0 | 36.4 | 18/7/2 | 5.8/2.7/2.5 | +12.2 |
| Bam Adebayo | 17.0 | 31.6 | 21/8/2 | 20.0/9.8/2.9 | +1.0 |
| Davion Mitchell | 36.0 | 29.5 | 13/5/5 | 8.9/2.6/6.7 | +4.1 |
| Bobby Portis | 34.0 | 29.5 | 19/5/1 | 13.3/6.3/1.5 | +5.7 |
| Kevin Porter Jr. | 27.0 | 27.9 | 6/7/5 | 17.5/5.2/7.4 | -11.5 |
| Kel'el Ware | 16.0 | 24.1 | 6/13/1 | 11.4/9.3/0.5 | -5.4 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 17.0 | 21.3 | 6/4/7 | 15.1/5.3/4.7 | -9.1 |
The Larsson Explosion: One Game or a Breakout?
Real talk: I don't know. This could be Larsson finally clicking after months in the rotation, or it could be the Heat's bench just finding rhythm against a Bucks team that was clearly playing without key pieces (more on that in a second). 37 minutes is real. 9-14 shooting is elite efficiency. Those 8 free throw makes suggest he was attacking the rim with purpose, not just chucking.
But here's what I know from the orthopedic side. Sudden explosions like this without a corresponding injury or role increase usually don't stick. Larsson went from 10.4 PPG to 28 PPG. That's not a progression. That's noise.
Don't add him in 8-team or 10-team leagues just yet. If you're in a deep league and playing the waiver wire aggressively, sure, add him and see if he follows up. But don't drop anyone meaningful. This feels like one of those games where a guy gets 30 minutes of clean looks and punches above his weight. His season average of 10.4 points is probably closer to reality than tonight's 28.
Giannis Stayed Efficient But Got Tired
All-NBA First Team Giannis Antetokounmpo dropped 31 points on just 12-24 shooting. 45.7 Yahoo points is solid, but here's the concern: he was only +3.6 above his season average, and he pulled 6 boards and 3 assists. For a guy who averages 9.8 rebounds, that's leaving boards on the table. His assist total was also down from his 5.4 season average.
And here's the thing, as a Bucks fan, I'm going to be honest: this loss stings because it felt winnable and it didn't. Giannis didn't have the help he needed. Ryan Rollins went 6-9 with 10 assists and put up 37 Yahoo points, which is solid, but he was -0.6 points below his season average. The spacing was off. The ball movement wasn't sharp. Giannis got his points but he was basically doing it alone.
For fantasy purposes, Giannis is still a top-5 lock every single night. But on nights like this where the role players don't show up, he's going to have lower usage on decent efficiency rather than elite nights. That's the floor for him, honestly.
The Heat's Bench Pulled the Weight
This is where Miami won the game. Kasparas Jakučionis went absolutely off the radar with 18 points on 5-12 shooting with 5 threes. +12.2 points above his season average. That's a guy who normally puts up 5.8 PPG. He was one of the three best scorers on the court tonight. Davion Mitchell added 13/5/5 with a steal, and Bobby Portis from the Bucks bench dropped 19 on 8-14 shooting.
Wait, hold up. Portis is on the Bucks. Let me check the data. Yes, Portis played 26 minutes for Milwaukee and went off. 29.5 Yahoo points, +5.7 above average. This is the kind of game where role players just have their night, and Miami had more of those guys do it than the Bucks did.
Bam Adebayo put up 31.6 Yahoo points on 21/8/2. He worked for it, 6-20 shooting, but he was basically at his season average. This wasn't a Bam takeover. This was a Bam solid night. The Heat won on depth and Larsson going thermonuclear.
The Real Fantasy Play Here
Kevin Porter Jr. is someone to monitor moving forward. He was 3-8 from the field, 0-3 from three, with 5 assists and 3 steals, but he played 27 minutes. He's averaging 17.5 PPG and 7.4 APG, and tonight he underperformed significantly at -11.5 points. For a guy with All-NBA potential, that's a red flag. Either he was hurt (I didn't see anything reported, so probably not), or the Bucks' offensive system didn't have the rhythm he needed.
If KPJ keeps shooting like this, his value craters. If tonight was an outlier, he bounces back hard. Watch his next two games.
Bottom Line
Miami wins a game they probably shouldn't have if Larsson stays at 10 PPG. The Bucks get beat by a team with better role player depth on the night. Giannis did enough to win. The bench didn't. That's basketball.
For your roster, hold Giannis. Hold Bam. Don't panic on anyone from the Bucks. Larsson is interesting but not a must-add yet. And if you're streaming points in deep leagues, you saw what Jakučionis can do when he gets hot. That's worth a spot in a 14-team league if you need scoring off the bench.